For the first time, the Greek Armed Forces are at their highest level of capabilities, and the difference in military strength with Turkey has narrowed considerably. Specific sectors, such as the Air Force and the Navy, are approaching the threshold of reversing the correlation of military power in favor of Greece, provided that the existing trend of strengthening the Greek forces remains stable or intensifies. At the same time, the Turkish armament program falters, facing problems with the United States of America.

The tug-of-war for maritime supremacy - where Greece, in essential areas, almost equals numerically or has a qualitative advantage over Turkey - is particularly critical in supporting national goals. This tug-of-war manifests itself in armament programs by both sides and in upgrading their naval means.

Turkey's side emphasizes acquiring new modern submarines and two light amphibious assault ships to consolidate the so-called "Blue Homeland." From Greece's side, in addition to upgrading submarines, the planning includes frigates of advanced technology and other reinforcements that, together with the Air Force, guarantee national security and sovereignty.

These findings are not without painful sacrifices for Greece. Despite Covid -19 and its economic hardship, Athens allocated $7.7 billion or 3.65% of its GDP in 2021 for defense. It is the highest percentage in Europe, where the average defense spending on GDP is 1.48%. It is also the most significant percentage of the last two decades allocated in the European area for this purpose, but also almost three times the 1.25% available to Turkey.

It is worth noting, however, that the continued downward trend and aging of Greece's population (11 million in 2010, 10 million in 2022, and 8.5 million in 2060) poses a severe risk to the country's economy and future defense capabilities. On the contrary, population growth in Turkey remained stable for several years (73.1 million in 2010, 85.3 million in 2022, and 96 million in 2060).

However, despite the relative size difference, the correlation of existing forces in the military field does not allow for predicting the possible outcome of a limited or large-scale military confrontation between them. Therefore, perhaps the safest conclusion is that it will be pretty destructive for both, with geopolitical effects of indeterminate extent.

As outlined in this study, one must not ignore the primary role in any eventuality of heated confrontation played by the front-line forces (the so-called "teeth"). However, equally important is the degree of effectiveness and functionality of the civil-military establishment on both sides that supports these forces and which consists of elements such as:

National cohesion, high morale. Adequacy of military doctrine, good communications, and information system. High level of training, technology, and planning. The timely and effective mobilization of the armed forces, the reservists, the public, and other related services. The efficient logistics support and the effective coordination of the various decision-making and Command and Control centers.

The most important findings of the study are the following:

Regarding the Land Forces ( the Army), there is Turkish numerical superiority in human resources and main battle tanks, armored vehicles, and other means. However, it remains significantly reduced compared to previous years. By extension, the difference in force ratios between the two countries in various categories of weapons is more favorable than before for Greece.

In the Navy, the comparison of forces with Turkey remains quite positive for the Greek defense, especially in terms of heavy sea assets such as submarines (11 Greek, 12 Turkish) and frigates (13 Greek, 16 Turkish) with solid capabilities to deal with any Turkish provocation in the Aegean. The rest of the warships, although numerically less than Turkey's, nevertheless constitute a considerable force for the Greek Navy that the other side cannot ignore, taking into account the fact that, unlike Greece, it has threats from various directions to face up.

In the Air Force, Greece, with 236 fighter jets, maintains a force ratio of 1.3 Turkish fighter jets for every Greek one. Greece's position will improve further by procuring an additional 18 French Rafale and a sufficient number of state-of-the-art American F-35 fighter jets. The Air Force is a very strong, reliable, and decisive element in defense of Greek national sovereignty.

Turkey's removal from the F-35 program by the US - due to the purchase of S-400 from Russia - and the problem it faces in the US Congress regarding the upgrade or purchase of F- 16 due to "anti-alliance" behavior plaices it in a disadvantageous position against Greece. Consequently, this development makes visible the narrowing of the numerical difference with Greece in this area and the possibility of overturning to its detriment, for the first time, the correlation of air power.

26/07/2022